The tourist industry is subject to enormous seasonal variation. A hotel in North Queensland has recorded its occupancy rate for each quarter during the past 5 years. These data are shown in the accompanying table. Table 1: Occupancy rate Year,2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, Quarter 1, 0.261, 0.295, 0.312, 0.362, 0.396 Quarter 2, 0.302, 0.324, 0.345, 0.388, 0.418 Quarter 3, 0.502, 0.568, 0.598, 0.696, 0.782 Quarter 4, 0.568, 0.615, 0.698, 0.738, 0.802 QUESTION A What is the centred moving average that would correspond to Quarter 3 in 2006? Answers should be consistent with the data provided and to be to three decimal places QUESTION B What is the adjusted seasonal index for Quarter 3 __________%? Answer should be listed to three decimal places in the form of 0.123 i.e. 0.123 represents 12.3% QUESTION C The trend line for this decomposition model was calculated to be Y = 0.36806 + 0.01195 T (where T represents time). What would be the coefficient of determination (R2) for this trend line? (Select the closest correct answer.) 0.2973 (i.e. 29.73%) 0.5452 (i.e. 54.52%) 0.7165 (i.e. 71.65%) 0.9886 (i.e. 98.86%) QUESTION D What would be the forecast in Quarter 3, 2009 using the trend line given previously (recall that to three decimal places it was Y = 0.368 + 0.012T) and the relevant adjusted seasonal index? Answer should be consistent with the data provided and to be three decimal places QUESTION E If we exponentially smooth the data in Table 1 with a smoothing constant of 0.2, the smoothed value for Quarter 1 in 2005 would be? Answer should be consistent with the data provided and to be three decimal places QUESTION F If we exponentially smooth the data in Table 1 with a smoothing constant of 0.2, the forecast for Quarter 1 2009 would be? Answer should be consistent with the data provided and to be three decimal places
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